Climate Friday: March 18, 2005 - Global Warming Inevitable

Not that those of us in the scientific community didn't already know this, but computer models predict that even if global greenhouse gas emissions were to stabilize immediately, we would expect to see significant warming over the next 100 years (Scientific American: Climate Models Reveal Inevitability of Global Warming).

Playing with the atmosphere is a little like steering an oil tanker. Sure, we could put on the brakes now, but it would take miles before we'd stop. While a person like me finds a report such as this incredibly disturbing and motivates me to curb my energy use even further, I think that this could ultimately have a negative effect on efforts to control greenhouse gas emissions.

The consequences of these emissions are now shown to be inevitable beyond the lifespan of the average human. Is the average person going to care anymore? For all of the outrage that parents have against "indecency" on television, in video games or on the internet in the name of their children, they really don't seem to care in the slightest about the future that those children will have.

old link

This seems like an appropriate place to plug a paper that I linked to almost two months ago (Climate Friday: February 4th) by Dr. Bill Hare which lays out a timetable for the expected impacts of global climate change. The paper itself has some unpleasant specifics, but if you'd like to avoid being depressed, just check out the appended charts on the last few pages, which show % impact against the amount of warming. While you're looking at those, pay attention to the levels of impact that correspond with 1C; in the 20th century we observed an average of about 0.5C of warming, and according to the study that pete cites above, we're already committed to another 0.5C of warming.

chart

Oh what the heck, here's one of the charts for you (since I have an idea of how many people will actually click on a link to a scientific paper). It's blurry since I pulled it from a PDF and tried to keep the file size low, so if you can't read it, you really do have to check out the paper for yourself.

Warming Effects by Temp Increase
Global warming effects by temperature increase, from a paper with a long title by Dr. Bill Hare.