There is a common belief that energy consumers will turn increasingly to renewable forms of energy as world demand for oil begins to outstrip production capacity limits. Some environmentalists even look forward to this because they believe it will put an end to our greenhouse gas problems. Personally, I cannot share this optimism.

Saudi Arabia indicated this week that the world should expect oil prices between $40-$50/barrel for the forseeable future (Financial Times). Historically, OPEC and Saudi Arabia have been wary of high oil prices because it dampens economic growth, leading to a lowered demand for oil. Moderate, steady oil prices have always been in OPEC's best interest. I would have to agree with the Saudi oil minister's assessment that high oil prices are here to stay. And they'll only get higher.

A smooth transition to pipe-dream alternative and renewable energy sources will not be possible for us. I believe that it's only a matter of time before ANWR is drilled. Ever-increasing world oil demand caused by an opulent U.S. population and a Chinese development explosion will continue to press on a production capacity that seems to have topped out. As prices climb higher and higher, we'll suck every drop out of the ground -- caribou be damned.

This will leave us no closer to a meaningful alternative energy solution, which demands not only the investment and innovation to create the technology, but a sharp reduction in the standard of living we currently enjoy. This isn't SimCity where fusion plants will suddenly blink into existence in 2050. Despite the power of individual foresight, we're an organism that has always collectively chosen the path of least immediate resistance. If we're no longer able to burn oil, there's no doubt in my mind that we'll turn to coal.

We already burn a lot of coal in this country. Over half of our electricity comes from coal burning and almost three-quarters of our electricity is generated by burning something. We've also got a lot of coal, and something neat about coal is that it can be turned into gasoline (Diesel Fuel News).

...a similar project in the U.S. -- if ever attempted strictly on commercial terms -- would require long-term world crude prices to hover around $33 to $35/barrel, HTI's Lee explains. Such levels haven't been sustained for any lengthy period in world history.

But one of the huge drawbacks to coal is that it's very dirty. However, as our energy addiction becomes more and more desperate, we'll be willing to accept more and more environmental destruction as a consequence of energy production.

The point is that as a species we have a behavior pattern which is maladapted to our continued survival. If we run out of one thing to burn, we'll move on to the next. There are strategies that can lead us out of the downward spiral we've constructed for ourselves, but they would require tectonic shifts in societal behavior. A pseudo-Texan with a pair of cowboy boots and a trust fund will always be able to do better for himself by screwing the rest of us. That's the cynical definition of the free market, which so many are relying on to solve our energy problems.