If you crave news today that is not about Iowa, be sure to read Jared Diamond’s article from yesterday’s NYT.

Today, there are more than 6.5 billion people, and that number may grow to around 9 billion within this half-century. Several decades ago, many people considered rising population to be the main challenge facing humanity. Now we realize that it matters only insofar as people consume and produce.

[…]

If the whole developing world were suddenly to catch up [with the consumption rates of the United States], world rates would increase elevenfold. It would be as if the world population ballooned to 72 billion people (retaining present consumption rates).

Some optimists claim that we could support a world with nine billion people. But I haven’t met anyone crazy enough to claim that we could support 72 billion. Yet we often promise developing countries that if they will only adopt good policies — for example, institute honest government and a free-market economy — they, too, will be able to enjoy a first-world lifestyle. This promise is impossible, a cruel hoax: we are having difficulty supporting a first-world lifestyle even now for only one billion people.

The whole article is not so disheartening. After all, I believe that gloom-and-doom is a poor motivator. But Diamond offers some compelling evidence that our rates of consumption are not tied to our standard of living, and argues that by meeting the third world halfway the Earth can sustainably support more people at a higher standard of living. He ends with an optimistic note that the political will for sustainable consumption has been increasing of late, especially in Australia and the United States, which have so far stalled the development of an international agreement on climate change. I won’t draw the obvious connections to the current election cycle; you’re smart enough to do that on your own.